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Documents made public in 2019 tell the story of a real-life spaceship heist during the Cold War. In 1959, midway through Russia’s global tour of their ‘Lunik 2’ rocket—the first manmade object to reach the moon—American intelligence agents reportedly pulled off an audacious heist by swapping the rocket for a decoy in plain sight. No guns, no getaway cars, just cold precision. It sounds like Hollywood fiction, and indeed a film adaptation is reportedly underway, but according to Relm Insurance, spacespionage isn’t a relic of the Cold War. The company says that today, the biggest prize isn’t physical hardware—it’s cyber control.
"In 2022, a leading US communications company was hacked and thousands of modems across Europe went dark in an instant," explains Joseph Ziolkowski, CEO and founder of Relm Insurance. “Satellite operators are facing an increasingly volatile risk environment and many still don’t have clear risk transfer mechanisms in place.”
According to Relm, the company has become known for breaking new ground in web3 and other transformational sectors. They say they’ve created industry-first insurance products for innovative industries by employing experts in each field to understand the risks just as well as their insureds. Relm describes itself as an early mover in digital asset insurance, later developing policies for startups in cannabis, cyber, artificial intelligence, fintech, and many others. Recently, the company says its space products have been making headlines.
“Events like 2022’s high-profile geopolitical sat-jamming activity are indicative of risks to come,” says Ziolkowski. “It’s important to note that acts of war can’t be covered by private insurance companies, but they provide an entrée of what's possible. Recent research posits that costs of attacks will reach record levels in 2025, with the cumulative impact over the next decade reaching nearly $20 billion.”
Not if, but When
Pathways for cyberattacks in space are apparently expanding. CyberInflight, a consulting company specializing in aerospace, tracks and forecasts cyberattacks in the space domain. The company’s Space Cybersecurity report graphs the systemic cost of attacks from 2000 to the present day, showing large spikes in attacks during 2022, with projections that continue climbing into 2033.
“We don’t foresee any stability in the coming decade,” CyberInflight CEO Florent Rizzo tells Relm. “The number of attacks is set to continue growing; space actors aren’t necessarily aware of the cyber-risk, and operational constraints are usually much more considered than cybersecurity constraints.”
Speaking on the likelihood of the first billion-dollar cyber-attack in the space domain, Rizzo confirms it’s a case of not if but when. “From a chronological point of view, we estimate that an attack of this scale will most likely occur by the end of the 2020s or early in the 2030s, particularly if the geopolitical situation worsens.”
Fortifying Space Against Cyber Heists
Relm notes that the growing threat of space-based cyberattacks is forcing companies to rethink their security strategies. Companies that have fallen prey to attacks are moving towards ‘zero-trust’ architectures, end-to-end encryption, and decentralized cybersecurity solutions, but Relm says industry leaders agree that more needs to be done.
Relm argues that the insurance industry is one of the few sectors able to facilitate change.
Kip Gering, CEO of Spider Oak, a space domain cybersecurity company believes risk aversion is stifling innovation in the space sector in many ways. “I recently spoke to an executive who said they don't want to be the person who turned a satellite from an expensive Earth observation vehicle into an expensive brick because they introduced innovations beyond the original mission purpose.”
The gap in understanding is as wide as gaps in coverage, but Gering doesn’t think regulators will be the ones to bridge it. “Traditionally, regulators don’t drive adoption quickly because of cost and the flexibility of vendors have in interpreting regulations or best practices. I believe that insurance companies are uniquely positioned because a financial incentive would drive the adoption of better practices in general, says Gering. “When I’m going to space expos, I discussed the risk management calculus and value of protections for multi-million-dollar assets with both space companies and insurers.
A Different Approach to Risk
According to Relm, its approach to understanding these risks represents a departure from traditional insurance models. While conventional insurers often ask for decades of historical data, Relm says it has invested heavily in building expertise and understanding the cutting edge of space technology.
The company sends staff to Space Park Leicester for specialized education, retains astrophysicist, Dr. Francesca Faedi, as an advisor, and maintains close relationships with governmental space agencies. In March, Relm hosted the Space Insurance Symposium, where its CEO, Ziolkowski, spoke alongside experts from leading US and European space agencies.
Per Relm, this hands-on approach to understanding risk has allowed it to offer coverage where others may see only uncertainty. "Traditional actuarial models break down when you're dealing with unprecedented scenarios," says Ziolkowski. "You need to combine deep technical understanding with innovative risk assessment approaches."
Relm points to estimates that the space economy could be worth $1.8 trillion in the coming years, a figure Ziolkowski says may even be conservative.
Preparing for the Inevitable
As the space economy continues to grow, Relm warns that the potential risks do, too. "We're seeing a perfect storm developing," Ziolkowski says, noting that the solution lies in a combination of innovation in both insurance products and risk management strategies. "We need to move beyond traditional models of space insurance," he argues. "The industry needs coverage that acknowledges both the unique risks and the unprecedented opportunities in the space sector."
This, Relm says, includes developing new approaches to underwriting that can account for emerging risks without requiring decades of historical data. "Innovation doesn't wait for historical data," Ziolkowski notes. "Neither should insurance."
Relm says that the stakes couldn't be higher. As humanity's presence in space expands, the potential impact of a major incident, whether accidental or intentional, also grows. "A billion-dollar cyber-attack will hit the space domain eventually," Ziolkowski says. "The question is: will the industry be prepared when it happens?"
Curious about what Relm’s doing to prepare risks in the space economy? Read more on its website.
