Who Will Die Next on Game of Thrones? Check Our Death Pool
George R.R. Martin's books no longer offer much guidance on who will survive Westeros. So we decided to start a dead pool. Here are this week's odds.
HBO
Ever since last season started veering wildly from George R. R. Martin's books, it's become clear that we're very much north of the Wall when it comes to predicting what's going to happen on Game of Thrones. Anyone could die, and (almost) anyone could eventually end up atop the Iron Throne. So, to make a game of this Game, this season we're going to be keeping odds on who might die before this show is over. (As are the folks at sports-betting site Paddy Power.) Now that we already lost Doran and Trystane Martell at the hands of Ellaria Sand and the Sand Snakes in last night's premiere, here's where everyone else stands—and as the season wears on, we'll be updating these odds to reflect plot developments. Call it a recap with benefits.
Helen Sloan/HBOJaime Lannister
Oh, Jaime. You ended last season by trying to rescue your niece/daughter Myrcella from Dorne. That ended oh-so-poorly when she was poisoned by Ellaria (pro tip: never kiss/cross Ellaria). Now that he's returned to King's Landing with Myrcella's body, his sister/lover Cersei might *want* to kill him, but she won't. Jaime's new who "fuck everyone who isn't us" attitude might get him in trouble, though, but chances are the Kingslayer will get out of it. Death Pool Odds: 7/1\* Chance of death: 12.5% *\*(How to read bookmakers' odds: Think of the first number as how much money the house will pay out if the bettor puts down the second number. If the odds are 7/1, then the house will pay you $7 if you put down $1. Since the house doesn't want to lose money, 7/1 odds mean bookmakers don't think it's going to happen.)*
Macall B. Polay/HBOVarys
After being briefly abandoned by Tyrion last season, Varys has been reunited with everyone's favorite Lannister. The Spider has his share of enemies (you don't get to be the Master of Whisperers without whispering something to the wrong person), but he's also got friends. And for now, those friends will keep him safe. Even if they don't, Varys can talk his way out of anything. Death Pool Odds: 7/1 Chance of death: 12.5%
Macall B. Polay/HBOCersei Lannister
The Walk of Shame last season was just the tip of the hateberg—Westeros is full of people who despise Cersei Lannister, and quite a few of them want her dead. But after completing her horrific naked tour of King's Landing at the hands of the High Sparrow, she was whisked away by the latest, largest member of the Kingsguard; we now know that's probably the zombified Gregor Clegane, but what matters is that he's taken a vow of silence until all of her enemies are dead. So she's pretty well protected these days. Death Pool Odds: 7/1 Chance of death: 12.5%
Macall B. Polay/HBOArya Stark
Arya Stark might've been blinded last season after killing Ser Meryn Trant out of vengeance, rather than because it was his time. But just because she's down, doesn't mean she's out. She's a Stark, and an audience favorite. She's got many more faces to wear, and many more people to check off of her kill list before she goes. She's probably learned her lesson about sneaking off and killing people, but she also really seemed to enjoy sneaking off and killing Trant, so she'll likely do it again—while fighting blind. Death Pool Odds: 12/1 Chance of death: 7.69%
Helen Sloan/HBOMissandei
If you're among a certain subset of fans (like, say, [Anna Kendrick](https://twitter.com/annakendrick47/status/334451757113540608)) then *Game of Thrones* is really just the love story between Missandei and Daenerys Targaryen. If you're everybody else, you see Missandei as a very compelling side player, which puts her chances of dying somewhere in the realm of Maybe Don't Get Too Comfortable. She accidentally got out of harm's way when Dany flew off on Drogon last season, but now that she's taken up with Grey Worm, her fate isn't much better---someone is *always* trying to kill that guy. Death Pool Odds: 2/1 Chance of death: 33.33%
Helen Sloan/HBOSansa Stark
Sansa Stark ended last season by jumping off the side of a friggin' castle, and has already shown up in promos for Season 6 wearing the House Stark's direwolf sigil. Not only is she not going down without a fight, she's not going down at all. Also, after enduring [a wedding-night rape](http://slim-weight.info/2015/05/game-of-thrones-recap-s05e06/) at the hands of Ramsay Bolton, Sansa can survive anything—and now that Brienne of Tarth has finallyfound her, she's got a knight (and Podrick!) watching her back. So she's safe. (Unless some blood-magic [ghost-faced killer](http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/Assassination_of_Renly_I) comes after her; then she's screwed.) Death Pool Odds: 8/1 Chance of death: 11.11%
Macall B. Polay/HBODaenerys Targaryen
Short version: No one is killing the Mother of Dragons. Also a survivor of wedding-night rape ([this show](http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/Rape), man...), Daenerys has spent five seasons amassing an army, conquering lands, freeing slaves, and raising dragons. The woman is Valyrian steel. She ended last season surrounded by the Dothraki—though not the Dothraki that she used to run with—and now those Dothraki say she needs to stay in a home for widows forevermore. Fear not, fans, she'll find her way out. She's the heroine of this story—the odds are ever in her favor. Death Pool Odds: 20/1 Chance of death: 4.76%
Helen Sloan/HBOTyrion Lannister
On paper, Tyrion would have a better chance of survival if he had a target painted on his back. His family may always pay their debts, but they're not exactly popular in Westeros these days. And it's not like his family name would help him anymore anyway. His brother Jaime was on his side, but after he freed Tyrion the Little Lion killed their father. Now he's trying to avoid civil war in Daenerys-less Meereen And yet! No one thinks Tyrion is going to die. He's just too good at escaping death—even if last night's fire at the docks means he's not sailing out of Meereen any time soon. Death Pool Odds: 12/1 Chance of death: 7.69%
Helen Sloan/HBOJorah Mormont
Poor Jorah. After saving Dany's life at the end of Season 5, you'd think he'd be in pretty good shape—getting back into his queen's good graces after spying on her for so long. But then he had to go and get greyscale. So even if a sword doesn't take him (quite likely now that he's found Dany's ring-in-a-haystack and is about to enter a horde of Dothraki to save her), his illness very well could. Death Pool Odds: 4/7 Chance of death: 63.64%
HBOThe High Sparrow
The High Sparrow and his religious zealots are living pretty high and mighty in King's Landing now, but you know who else is quickly regaining her power? Cersei. You know who wants the High Sparrow dead more than anyone? Cersei. It might take a while for her and her Kingsguard henchmen to get to him, but they're going to savor that killing when they do. Death Pool Odds: 5/6 Chance of death: 63.64%
Helen Sloan/HBOKing Tommen Baratheon
Look, no one wears the crown of King of the Andals and the First Men for very long, especially if they also wear the name Lannister/Baratheon. Tommen, you're just too sweet. You might have a badass queen mother behind you, but there are like a bajillion people in the Seven Kingdoms who want your job. Don't leave your drink unattended at the party is what we're saying. Death Pool Odds: 7/4 Chance of death: 36.36%
Helen Sloan/HBOBrienne of Tarth
Now that Brienne has found Sansa, there might be another snag in the whole idea of Brienne-protecting-Sansa: Brienne's death. She did her duty when she killed Stannis Baratheon at the end of last season (he'd used Melisandre/magic to kill Renly, whom she was sworn to protect), but that might mean every one of Stannis' soldiers that Ramsay Bolton didn't kill is now after her. Oh, and Ramsay Bolton's soldiers themselves are now *definitely* out to kill her to get to Sansa. She's a tough knight, and Sansa can help look out for her, but her only other real ally is Podrick, so unless she can constantly watch her back, she's going to have a hard time staying alive. Death Pool Odds: 5/6 Chance of death: 54.55%
Macall B. Polay/HBOSamwell Tarly
Good old Sam. Sure, the Night's Watch might be suspicious of him considering his allegiance to Jon Snow, but the man killed a White Walker. He had dragonglass, of course, but anyone who doesn't straight up soil themselves at the sight of a White Walker is a valuable commodity. Long live Sam. Death Pool Odds: 14/1 Chance of death: 6.67%
HBOTheon "Reek" Greyjoy
Theon Greyjoy has pretty much been dead inside ever since Ramsay made him his whipping boy. He got a spark of life at the end of last season when he jumped off the top of Ramsay's castle with Sansa, but he also may have sealed his fate. Sansa desperately wants to live—Theon not so much. He may continue protecting Sansa like he did during last night's season premiere for a while, but the chances of him getting out of this season alive are pretty slim. Death Pool Odds: 2/5 Chance of death: 71.43%
Macall B. Polay/HBOBran Stark
After finally finding the three-eyed raven in Season 4, Bran disappeared. He's back now, and all grown up. He can (presumably) still warg with anything and still has Hodor. He also, quoth the raven, may never walk again, but he will be able to fly. No idea how soon that'll happen, but he'll be around for a while regardless. Death Pool Odds: 20/1 Chance of death: 4.76%
HBOPetyr "Littlefinger" Baelish
Petyr Baelish, like Varys, can talk himself out of almost anything. He's going to need that. Last season, his brothel was destroyed by the High Sparrow and his holy rollers. Then, after Lady Olenna threatened to reveal what she knew about his involvement in King Joffrey's death, he told her the secret that got Cersei locked up by the High Sparrow. Cersei is free now, so you do the math. Luckily, Littlefinger also spent much of last season being Sansa's confidant, which might bode well if she reclaims some of her former power. Death Pool Odds: 7/1 Chance of death: 12.5%
Helen Sloan/HBOMargaery Tyrell
Margaery, despite being Tommen's queen, has been held under the Sept of Baelor by the High Sparrow's Faith Militant for a while. (She denied her brother was a homosexual despite walking in on him in bed with men, like, all the time.) If the power of the Faith Militant is weakened this season, she might be set free. But if that power is weakened by Cercei, Margaery might have other problems. Still, she's a female and a Tyrell, two things that make her stronger than most. She's got a decent shot in Season 6. Death Pool Odds: 6/1 Chance of death: 14.29%
HBODrogon
He might be a little injured right now—or, at least he was the last time we saw him with Dany—but c'mon. He's a gigantic dragon. He'll probably be fine. Death Pool Odds: 9/2 Chance of death: 18.18%
HBOGrey Worm
Grey Worm has escaped death once, at the hands of the Sons of the Harpy. But can that streak continue? He's one of the best warriors out there, but as a member of the Unsullied he has an almost pathological need to walk himself into situations where he will almost certainly be killed. One of these days, it's gonna happen. Death Pool Odds: 11/8 Chance of death: 42.11%
Helen Sloan/HBOQyburn
Qyburn probably didn't make any friends in King's Landing when he stood by Cersei's side during her troubles with the Faith Militant. But now that the High Sparrow has released her, she might be the only friend he needs. Whether or not he succeeds at replacing Varys as the King's Landing Master of Whisperers, that's another story. Death Pool Odds: 4/1 Chance of death: 20%
HBOPodrick Payne
Podrick's got a shot. Training with Brienne of Tarth has no doubt taught him a thing or two, but also, he's with Brienne of Tarth and if they ever find themselves seriously outnumbered, they may not do so well. (They did alright against Ramsay's men last night, though, so maybe he's alright?) But he could just as easily die trying to save the woman he squires for as he could live by running away. Death Pool Odds: 2/1 Chance of death: 33.33%
HBOWalder Frey
Walder Frey was largely responsible for what happened to the Starks at the Red Wedding. That was all well and good when Tywin Lannister promised to protect him after-the-fact. But Tywin is dead now, most of the North hates him, and Frey is also on Arya's personal kill list. Also, this dude is *old*. Death Pool Odds: 8/11 Chance of death: 57.89%
HBOGregor "The Mountain" Clegane
Again, we're presuming that the newest member of the Kingsguard that Qyburn introduced to Cersei is a reanimated Gregor Clegane. If it is, that guy will pretty much be unstoppable. He's sworn a vow of silence until all of Cersei's enemies are squashed and he likely wants to talk again. Also, he's huge. Death Pool Odds: 5/2 Chance of death: 28.57%
Helen Sloan/courtesy HBOJaqen H’ghar
Jaqen typically deals out death rather than succumbing to it himself---just look at that nasty trick he pulled on Arya when he faked his death last season! (Also, as a Faceless Man it's hard to tell if he's ever really dead or not.) Regardless, H'ghar will probably survive the season ... unless Arya gets tired of this training crap and decides to just go all-out assassin on him or something. Death Pool Odds: 6/1 Chance of death: 14.29%
Helen Sloan/HBODavos
After spending time as Stannis Baratheon's confidant, Davos wasn't actually there when Stannis met his end (he was up north trying to get Jon Snow to help Baratheon's efforts). Now he and his small squad of men (and Jon Snow's direwolf) look like they're set for a face-off with Thorne and half of the Night's Watch after they retrieved Snow's body and holed up in Castle Black. So, yeah, Davos is in a tight spot. Death Pool Odds: 8/13 Chance of death: 61.9%
Macall B. Polay/HBODaario Naharis
At the end of last season, Daario took off with Jorah to find Daenerys. This leaves a couple options: 1) He'll die looking. 2) He'll find her ... but also find the Dothraki and find himself on the receiving end of one of their weapons. Or 3) He'll find her, retrieve her, and they'll live happily ever after. This is *Game of Thrones;* which option do *you* think is more likely? Death Pool Odds: 7/4 Chance of death: 36.36%
HBOGilly
Gilly has Sam to protect her, so that's good. Also, unlike most of the other fools on this show, she's not afraid to just hide. In fact, Gilly might be the smartest person on this show. Death Pool Odds: 12/1 Chance of death: 7.69%
HBOHodor
Hodor. Death Pool Odds: 5/1 Chance of death: 16.67%
Helen Sloan/HBOOlly
Olly, you're a nice boy. Olly, you stopped being a nice boy when you dealt a death blow to Jon Snow. You might just die because no one watching this show wants to see your stupid blank moon face anymore. Death Pool Odds: 8/11 Chance of death: 57.89%
HBOIlyn Payne
Nobody's seen Ilyn Payne in ages. But he took off Eddark Stark's head, so he's on Arya Stark's kill list—and thus on this one. Death Pool Odds: 4/7 Chance of death: 63.64%
Helen Sloan/HBOMelisandre
Presumably, Melisandre can protect herself with magic, but at this point her influence has killed Renly Baratheon and Stannis' daughter Shireen (sweet, sweet Shireen). Like, even if this woman is fun to have around because ghosts crawl out of her vagina and stuff, she needs to meet a very bad end. (Also, as we found out last night, she's actually super old, so maybe she'll just croak?) Death Pool Odds: 3/1 Chance of death: 25%
HBOThe "Shame" Nun
There are also 1/2 odds that we might never see this woman again. But while the Faith Militant and their ilk are in King's Landing, so is she. Death Pool Odds: 1/2 Chance of death: 66.67%
Helen Sloan/HBOBronn
Bronn left Dorne with Jaime and his (now dead) niece/daughter. Cersei isn't going to kill her brother/lover over her daughter's death, but once she's gotten through her grief someone might have to pay the price. If not, Bronn is pretty much always getting himself into situations where he might die—it's an occupational hazard of the hired sword. Just give it time. Death Pool Odds: 11/4 Chance of death: 26.67%
Helen Sloan/HBORamsay Bolton
Everyone wants this guy dead now, right? Aside from having Westeros' most stab-able face, Ramsay Bolton now has Sansa Stark, Theon's sister Yara Greyjoy (if she ever gets to him), and any remaining Stannis stans all out to get him. If there is any poetic justice on this show, he will meet a terrible and gruesome end at the hands of at least one of them. Death Pool Odds: 2/1 Chance of death: 33.33%
Comments
Back to top
Angela Watercutter is WIRED's senior editor for special projects. Prior to joining WIRED she was a reporter for the Associated Press. Watercutter was also a senior editor of Longshot magazine and a contributor to Pop-Up Magazine. She received a bachelor of science degree in journalism from Ohio University. ... Read More
