Plug-in hybrids are coming to Peoria, thanks to bureaucrats in California.
The Air Resources Board threw automakers a bone by slashing the number of electric and fuel cell vehicles they must build, but it told them to produce tens of thousands of plug-in hybrids within six years. The rule applies to 10 states that have adopted California's pioneering zero emissions vehicle mandate, so plug-in hybrids will reach critical mass sooner than expected.
"The big picture is the person in Peoria could be looking at a plug-in hybrid in their showroom within three or four years," says Luke Tonachel, a transportation analyst with the National Resources Defense Council. "This is the first time the automakers have a requirement to build tens of thousands of plug-in hybrids and bring them to showrooms. That's a game changer."
How big a game changer?
The six biggest automakers - General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Honda, Chrysler and Nissan - will have 58,333 hybrids on the road in California by 2014 - and slightly more than that in the other 10 states. "We'll see approximately 133,000 nationwide by 2014," Tonachel says.
You could argue plug-in hybrids are headed our way regardless of anything California does. General Motors plans to offer the Chevrolet Volt range-extended EV and Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid by 2010, the same year Toyota rolls out the plug-in Prius. Ford developed a plug-in Escape, and several other automakers are experimenting with the technology. But "CARB's mandate locks automakers into getting them on the road," Tonachel says.
If you want something greener than a plug-in, you'll have to wait. The Air Resources Board slashed to 7,500 the number of zero-emission vehicles the automakers must build by 2014. Credits, exemptions and other bureaucratic sleight of hand mean automakers can produce as few as 5,357 fuel cell vehicles or as many as 12,100 battery EVs.
"If you live in one of those (10) states, you may see some of these cars, but it doesn't mean you'll be able to buy them," said Sherry Boschert, vice president of Plug In America. The Air Resources Board considers hydrogen and battery electric vehicles "demonstration vehicles" that aren't ready for consumers, so automakers don't have to actually sell them to the public - or even put them in each of the states with a ZEV mandate.
"They can place all those vehicles in California," said Tom Cackette, deputy director of the Air Resources Board. "If they do, they don't have to place any of them in the other states."
Read about the Air Resources Board decision to slash the ZEV mandate here.
