Security

How To: Wage a Tribal War in Pakistan

There’s a lot of talk, in U.S. military circles, about finally trying to tame the tribal frontiers of Pakistan. One idea that’s being floated is to bring to these wild lands the "playbook" that worked in western Iraq — co-opting the tribes, and encouraging them to align against the Islamic extremists. William "Mac" McCallister — […]

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There's a lot of talk, in U.S. military circles, about finally trying to tame the tribal frontiers of Pakistan. One idea that's being floated is to bring to these wild lands the "playbook" that worked in western Iraq -- co-opting the tribes, and encouraging them to align against the Islamic extremists.

William "Mac" McCallister -- who's spent the last couple of years serving as one of the Marines' leading experts on the tribes of Anbar province -- signals a whole symphony of cautionary tones about the idea, in Small Wars Journal. The post is long, dense, detailed -- and worth reading, twice. Here's a sample:

First, shame and honor not hearts and minds governs individual and group behavior along the North-West Frontier. We are not going to win hearts nor change minds. Study and gain a detailed appreciation of Pakthunwali, the honor code of the Pathans, in order to effectively communicate intent, whether kinetic or non-kinetic, within the target audience’s cultural frame of reference.

Appreciate the tendency of tribes to segment. This organizing principle is expressed in groups allying themselves against an external threat, economic or political necessity even though they may be potentially hostile toward one another or involved in open conflict.
The segmentation principle applies to tribes, religious movements, military units, etc. British experience along the frontier provides for numerous example of this principle. Although an area may be divided into numerous tribes and clans that are constantly at each other’s throats, the moment an outsider so much threatens to encroach these same tribes and clans put aside their feuds and unite under one banner.
The tribes resisted the best efforts of the Great Mughal, British and now the Pakistanis in this manner for ages.

The third consideration is patronage. Patronage is the guarantor of the “social contract.” It supports establishing and articulating relationships between individuals and groups that share solidarity and origin. Therefore, it is closely linked to segmentation. Patronage reflects a two-way exchange. In exchange for someone’s patronage, the patron is responsible for providing something in return i.e.
protection, economic and or political assistance, etc. A patronage relationship is not easily entered into. The decision to do so reflects a strategic decision and a commitment by two parties to maximize a
“kindred” strategy or long-term relationship.

The last consideration is territory. Every piece of terrain is considered owned or controlled by some tribe or clan. Territory will be defended by force. The extent of territorial control is determined by the state’s ability to project power and influence and challenge ownership. Tribal law is in effect...

Empowering moderate forces in the tribal areas is not a defense against extremism and terrorism. Neither is extending the government’s control over and imposition of good governance upon the inhabitants of the North-West Frontier. The acceptance of western rule of law may very well be achieved in the near-term with the imposition of civil and political authority into the tribal areas but government presence will in time be perceived as occupation no matter the arguments to the contrary. The tribes will inevitably rise in rebellion to challenge perceived tyranny and slip back to fighting as a form of renegotiating the social contract. Western notions of legitimacy and good governance are unlikely to resonate with individual tribesmen since they do not share our cultural heritage and appreciation for the implied wisdom these concepts embody.

UPDATE: Disagreement, over at Abu Muqawama. "Trying to predict behavior through the lens of traditional community and Pashtunwali requires one to see culture as static and unchanging. That is a recipe for failure."

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