Is the New Air Force Bomber Doomed?

The Air Force's bomber plan doesn't have a lot of cheerleaders. Clark Murdock, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, puts the criticism bluntly in this new report: "Fielding a penetrating bomber by 2018 is probably not doable, because the technology is not mature enough, and almost certainly not affordable, because the cost of trying to field immature technology will lead to skyrocketing costs."

Actually, I've thought the Air Force's bomber plans --- fielding off-the-shelf technology by 2018 -- made more sense than blue-sky plans to develop entirely new systems. But Murdoch offers a different solution:

If the still-operational force of B-52s and B-1s is not capable of conducting the volume of long-duration air support missions (in low-threat environments) needed in the 2018-timeframe, the Air Force could consider the option of fielding first a commercial-derivative bomber optimized for the low-end mission to fill this capability gap (if it emerges). But this should not divert the Air Force from developing and then procuring the penetrating bomber the nation needs in the mid-2020s when the technology is mature and the next-generation bomber is affordable.

Underlying the bomber conundrum is that there is "little or no effective Air Force advocacy" for fielding a new bomber. In other words, the Air Force, despite official pronouncements, is not 100 percent behind the 2018 bomber, making it unlikely it will be fielded.