Iraq Intelligence Estimate: No Surprise, it's Bad (Updated)

Another day, another *"*Unclassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate" -- this one on "Prospects for Iraq's Stability." It's not quite as snooze-worthy as the last NIE, but then again, it contains few surprises. And hey, guess what? Things are looking pretty bad in Iraq, though it's sort of, slightly, a bit better in some areas (pile on the caveats):

There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas. However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions.

Okay, so the interesting part of the report is at the end where it recommends--perhaps not surprisingly, that we stay the course:

We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far.

The report also has some predictions about the next 12 months (and if there are any psychics out there would want to go head-to-head with the spooks on those projections, feel free to leave your predictions below. We can revisit this next year).

Update:

I just want to draw attention to SPC Haight's comment below; it's interesting to have the perspective on this report from someone serving in Iraq.