No Cold War 2? Putin Proposes Missile Defense Alternative (Updated Again)

We may not have a second Cold War, after all. After months of hot tempers, heightened tensions, and angry exchanges over American plans to put missile defenses in Eastern Europe, Russian boss Vladimir Putin has proposed an alternate solution. And, at first glance, at least, it's not half-bad.

The U.S. has been looking to install an advanced radar in the Cezch Republic and place interceptors in Poland -- mostly (but probably not exclusively) as a defense against an Iranian ICBM attack. (There's long been an assumption in American military circles that the remaining members of the "Axis of Evil" will get missiles with a range long enough to hit the U.S., though that hasn't happened yet.) The Eastern European system would be based on the ground-based midcourse defense that's now up in Alaska, bracing for the day that
North Korea gets a working ICBM.

The Russians hated the idea, however. The reason why, observers assumed, was that Putin & Co. didn't want these former Soviet satellites nestled so squarely in the American camp.

Which makes Putin's announcement today so surprising. According to the AP, Putin told Bush that Moscow "would drop its objections if the radar-based system were installed in Azerbaijan... a former
Soviet republic.

Bush's called Putin's idea an "interesting proposal—let's let our experts have a look at it," according to White
House National Security Adviser Steve Hadley.

A quick look shows Azerbajian might very well lie on any flight path an Iranian ICBM might take. "I'd say it's not obviously unreasonable," one observer tells DANGER ROOM. "Azerbaijan is certainly in the right place to launch boost-phase (or early mid-course) interceptors at Iran-to-Europe and
Iran-to-US shots."

The AP notes that "Putin said [a radar] facility, built during Soviet times [maybe this one], is still available for Russia's use under a continuing agreement between Russia and Azerbaijan."

*The Russian leader said the proposed relocation would alleviate Russia's concerns about a missile shield based on its doorstep in Eastern Europe... *

• He laid out several other conditions, as well: *

• * Taking Russia's concerns into account. *

• * Giving all sides "equal access" to the system. *

• * Making the development of the system transparent. *

• "Then we will have no problem," the Russian leader said... *

He argued the benefits of his suggested substitute: An Azerbaijan-
based system would cover all of Europe rather than just part of it and destroyed missile debris would fall in the ocean rather than on land...

*Both sides portrayed the idea—far from becoming a reality—as proof that the U.S.-relationship has not fallen so far as people have speculated amid the dispute. The leaders said they agreed that Iran and the suspicions that it is developing a nuclear weapon is the threat to focus on, not each other. *

• "We have an understanding about common threats, but we have differences," Putin said.*

UPDATE: John Pike over at Globalsecurity.org tells DANGER ROOM, "there is no good news in the idea, only bad news."

1 - The US is never going to allow the Russians to be on the critical path of anything so central to the US security posture;*

2 - The "re-starting the Cold War" has everything to do with Putin trying to end Russia's 15 year long [military equipment] procurement holiday, and very little to do with US missile defense in Eastern Europe;

3 - The existing radar brings nothing to the table, in that a new X-Band radar would have to be built;

4 - the forward location means that the interceptors get into a tail chase fairly early on, so the total footprint of the usable battlespace is greatly diminished.

UPDATE 2: Let the negotiations begin! National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley tells the Washington Post it's "possible that an eventual missile defense system, which he described as 'years away' from deployment, could include components in
Azerbaijan as well as Poland and the Czech Republic."

Hadley said Putin told Bush that Russia recognizes "a potential threat to
Russia, Europe and the United States" from a missile attack and proposed making data from the radar in Azerbaijan "available in real time as a contribution to a system that would provide protection against that threat."

As Allen notes in the comments, it looks like the Azerbaijanis are already game.

Putin said he spoke yesterday with the president of Azerbaijan, who agreed to host elements of a missile defense system there to protect all of Europe. If this is accepted, he said, he would have no need to carry out his threat to retarget Russian missiles or place offensive units along the country's European borders.

Putin said after the meeting with Bush that his proposal is to use
Azerbaijan's Gabala radar station, which he said is "rented" by Russia. "We can do it automatically," he said, according to a White House translation. "And in this case, the system which is to be constructed can cover not only part of
Europe but the entire Europe without any exception. . . . This will make it possible for us not to change our stance on targeting our missiles. On the contrary, this will create necessary grounds for common work."

(High five: AT)