Iran's Nukes: Time to Freak?

The New York Times is once again freaking out about Iran's nuclear program. Should the Gray Lady be so spooked?

"Inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have concluded that Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is now beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before," the Times is reporting.

In a short-notice inspection of Iran’s operations in the main nuclear facility at Natanz on Sunday, conducted in advance of a report to the United Nations Security Council due early next week, the inspectors found that Iranian engineers were already using roughly 1,300 centrifuges and were producing fuel suitable for nuclear reactors, according to diplomats and nuclear experts here.

Until recently, the Iranians were having difficulty keeping the delicate centrifuges spinning at the tremendous speeds necessary to make nuclear fuel and were often running them empty or not at all.

Now, those roadblocks appear to have been surmounted. “We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” said Mohammed
ElBaradei, the director general of the energy agency, who clashed with the Bush administration four years ago when he declared that there was no evidence that Iraq had resumed its nuclear program. “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.”

This pretty much echoes the news from last month, when Iran announced it was enriching uranium on an "industrial scale." So let's go back to Jeffrey Lewis' reaction to the announcement, when he offered "three things worth keeping in mind, before you sell that nice little townhouse on Logan Circle and relocate to Montana."

• 1,000 P1 centrifuges (assuming 2 kg SWU [separative work units] per machine) operating continuously require 23-29 months to enrich enough uranium for a bomb; 3,000 P1 centrifuges would take
  8-10 months. Either way, we’ve still got time, probably two years assuming the centrifuges can operate continuously.

• Iran still does not operate its centrifuges continuously. Based on Iran’s past consumption of UF₆ [uranium hexafluoride], Iran feeds gas into its centrifuges only about 20 percent of the time, suggesting the machines are either breaking down or that Iran cannot use its own UF₆ as feedstock.

• There is no evidence that Iran can mass produce the components of 3,000
  centrifuges. The Iranians can claim mass production, but I want to see the evidence that Iran can mass produce ball bearings and maraging steel bellows for the P1. Diplomats have been saying Iran imported enough components for about 1,000 to 2,000 centrifuges. So, my guess is that Iran can make today’s announcement with what they bought from AQ Khan; they may run into problems when they try to push past that number.

All of this is to suggest that today’s announcement seems like a stunt.

After all, a few thousand P1 centrifuges is nowhere near industrial scale.
A 1,000 MW(e) reactor requires something like 100,000 SWU each year to keep it fueled. Aqazadeh mentioned plans for an indigenous 360 MW(e)
electric reactor—assuming 36,000 SWU to keep it fueled, Iran would need
18,000 P1 centrifuges. Good luck with that.

Is Iran dangerous as hell? You bet it is. Do we need to do something soon about this? You bet we do. Is this sky falling this second? No, it's not.

(High five: Ross Report)