In addition to predicting what fuel we'll be using in 2030, the DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA) new energy report also estimates the percentage of vehicles that will use alternative fuel or include electric motors.
According to the EIA, hybrids will constitute 10 percent of new light-duty vehicles by 2030, and the same amount (2 million per year) will be flex fuel vehicles. In both cases those numbers indicate slow growth that won't do much to reduce vehicles emissions or petroleum consumption. The number of diesel vehicles sold will increase to 1.2 million annually.
Even though the fuel cell car has received the most hype and funding of any of the Bush Administration initiatives for alternative propulsion, the EIA says the combined market share of fuel cell, natural gas, and electric vehicles will be just 8 percent in 2030.
So around the time Jenna Bush or Chelsea Clinton might consider presidential runs, 72 percent vehicles will rely entirely on the trusty internal combustion engine for power. The automotive industry thrives on inertia, but hopefully this administration's estimate of our ability to innovate will be as sound as their plan for post-war Iraq.
